Tim Horton's - the largest fast food chain in Canada; 27.7% of the market, based on traffic, is coming public this week!

I can tell you two things about this IPO:  first, it's probably going to make some people a lot of money.  And second, I think you guys can have a piece of that!

I think the 'THI' IPO will be hot, hot, hot.

So, I'm going to tell you why I think that this is for you - buy, buy, buy!  And then I'm going to tell you exactly what you have to do to try to make money off the IPO.

Now, how can I tell before hand that when this stock starts trading, it should go up, and up, and up.
 

How do I know to get you on board?  It's all about the roadshow.  You can always judge an ipo by just counting the number of people who go to the roadshow.

Well guess what?  This head count for Tim Horton's?  It's off the charts!  It's going to be incredible; people are queueing up for this horse race!

Right now, the price range for this one:  $18-20 a share, but I think the underwriters for this one - Goldman Sachs and RBC - are going to have to raise that range.  And when you get bump after bump after bump in the price range, that's a fabulous sign that you've got to be in!

'Glaze anatomy'

Now, let's get some things straight.  Thi will not be a cheap stock if it trades at $18-20 a share, and it certainly won't be cheap if it goes to $28, which is where you'd expect it to go, given the success of Chipotle - the current benchmark for fast food spinoffs.

But, really, a stock is only cheap or expensive, relative to where it's going, and I think this one is going higher!

We know there's strong demand from the roadshow.  I also think this stock will be huge, not just in the united states, but in Canada.

I think the Canadians will pour money into this stock.

Demand is high, supply will be tight.  There's just going to be a very small float, and that means we're talking about real scaricity; the float being the actual number of shares - not the ones that are going to be kept back -but the actual number of shares that will trade.

Low supply.  High demand.  Even if you didn't ever attend one economics 101 class, you can tell that translates into higher prices that you've got to be in.

Now look, here's what I think you need to do.  I don't want you into this for a long term investment.

Sure, they'll probably try to expand into America, but their growth is already very constrained in their core market, because they seem to be pretty much everywhere in Canada; they've saturated that market.

They may have maybe 3/4 of the market for coffee and doughnuts up there.  Even with strong same-store sales numbers, which admittedly they have, this is not a growth story and you know, on wall st., we are junkies for growth.  Most of their stores are operated by franchisees, and that model should make you a little squeamish.  Remember boston chicken?  Holy cow!  

So, understand.  I think you want in this thing as a trade off the high demand at the IPO, and the very tight float.  I do not want you to buy this, and hold the stock for 18 months, or 5 years, or whatever.  And then, down the line, blame me for getting into it.

So, here's what you do:  I think based on the Chipotle (CMG) metric,  the stock could go as high as $28;  I don't want to pay above that.  I think you should enter a $24 top order to Goldman Sachs, or to RBC, or anyone else who has stock to offer.

Why not get the free money?  I always like free money.

Once you get a reasonable, just sell it.  Don't stick your neck out when you do not have to.

The bottom line:  you go to Goldman; you go to RBC; you go to whoever can deliver you some this, and I think you pay up to $24 for it.  After that, you let it go, and please, don't be afraid to be a trader, and take some profits when you've got them.

While it looks like CMG, it's not as good - it doesn't have the growth, it doesn't have the room.  You got this from me.  Tell your brokers that.

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Let me tell you why I hate local governments, and how that could make you some mad money!

Local governments are the last bastions of totally anti-deluvian technology.

Things that could be easily done with computers are handled by inefficient teams of people at the local government level.

Local gov'ts never want to invest in the capital that can make running a town cheaper and easier.  Hey, that's a big problem.

But everything I hate about local gov'ts is about to change, because of the next stock I'm telling you to buy.  It's a new one.

It's called Tyler Technologies (TYL).

These guys make the software that automate local govt's.

Right now, TYL provides information management software/services for 6,000 governments.

As of 2002, there were 87,525 governments from the county down in America.   So, these guys haven't even begun to penetrate the market for automated local govt's.

I predict big numbers for TYL this year.

Not only that, but they use their cash flow to buy back stock.  Buy, buy, buy!  Very investor friendly.

There's nothing better than buying stock in a co. That does best for its shareholders.  A co. that's aligned with you - that has your agenda.

Speaking of shareholders, the co. Has the added advantage of having Michael Dell (CEO, dell computer) as its largest shareholder.

I also can see TYL as a little niche schnitzel if not a buy outright, for a co. Like oracle.  But you don't need that kind of speculation in TYL to make this a worthy investment.

The bottom line!:  you want to capitalize on the complete and utter inefficiency of having some 80,000 different municipalities?  Then I think you need to buy TYL!