"The odds are against intraday rallies, but they do happen.  But you can't call them unless you know what Cramer says to look for.

The rational, smart, empirical to try to predict a real rally from an ugly market.


#1:  Look for an oversold market.    First, you need an oversold market.

#2:  Look for very few bulls.  When you have a lot of bears, you don't have a lot of people who have gotten out.  And, when you have so few bulls, it's likely that you've got more people who want in.

#3:  Third condition:  Look for rallies late in the day.  Intraday rallies start late in the day.  Anything that starts mid-day or early morning, will probably fail, because that kind of rally brings out sellers.

Only the rallies that start around 2:45pm tend to be successful.  Because the buyers just overrun the sellers - they don't have time to put orders out between then and the bell.

#4:   Fourth condition:  Sometimes rallies can happen after the margin clerks clear out everybody who bought stock on margin, or borrow money - a foolish thing.

#5:  Wait for the shorts to cover.   When shorts cover, stock is bought back and this can trigger a rally.


The bottom line!:   Luck does not matter.  Intraday rallies are rare, but they're easier to find if you use my tips.  Sometimes you can make your own luck, but not when it comes to a rally."

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